Leistikow's Iowa vs Illinois State prediction: Lachey's return can pace Hawkeyes win (2024)

IOWA CITY − The offense, the offense, the offense. That’s all everyone wants to know about heading into the 2024 Iowa football season. Will the offense be better? How much better? Can it go from very bad to very average?

While new offensive coordinator Tim Lester’s system will take time – definitely more than one season – to reach its full potential, there is one player on the Hawkeyes’ offense who is a sure-fire, no-doubt NFL prospect and can carry Lester through some early bumps.

And that person will be taking the field in a game for the first time in exactly 350 days.

Tight end Luke Lachey could’ve been a Day 2 selection in the 2024 NFL Draft. But the rangy, fast, sure-handed Ohio native chose to return for his fifth-year senior season. His journey back from a gruesome lower-leg fracture (suffered last Sept. 16 against Western Michigan) has been paved with patience and resilience.

On Saturday, as 25th-ranked Iowa faces Illinois State before 69,250 fans at Kinnick Stadium, No. 85 will be back in black (and gold) as the team swarms onto Duke Slater Field.

Leistikow's Iowa vs Illinois State prediction: Lachey's return can pace Hawkeyes win (1)

The pregame swarm was actually something the team practiced recently. Even in an empty Kinnick, Lachey got emotional.

The real thing, with a highly charged fan base expecting big things this season, is coming Saturday.

“To go out there and do it again with all my teammates and all the fans, that’ll be really cool,” Lachey said, “and something I’m really looking forward to.”

We know from watching the NFL and from the words coming from Lester’s mouth that a featured tight end is integral to this variant of the renowned, complicated Shanahan system that Iowa is implementing. Think George Kittle and the San Francisco 49ers.

So, in Lester’s first game calling plays since 2022 when he was head coach at Western Michigan, he can lean into the most reliable option on the entire offense.

Lachey was the Hawkeyes' best offensive player last year, before his injury. In the eight-plus quarters that Lachey was healthy, that was the best that (returning) quarterback Cade McNamara looked. Lachey hauled in seven passes for 73 yards in the 24-14 opening win against Utah State. A week later in Ames, Lachey collected a game-changing 35-yard pass and finished with three receptions for 58 yards in a 20-13 win.

One quarter into Iowa’s next game, on a fluke fall near the Western Michigan sideline, his season was over.

While McNamara and the Hawkeyes will be working off some cobwebs Saturday against their FCS opponent, Lachey (6-foot-6, 247 pounds) can be the reliable, go-to guy on first downs, third downs and in the red zone.

Lester seeks explosive plays as part of his offense and believes those splash moments can tilt the game, and he’ll work all afternoon to hit three or four of those. Lachey can be a guy that provides both big plays and a comforting option for Iowa on Saturday. And that can lead to a comfortable win.

“He’s going to put us in the best position to succeed,” Lachey said of Lester. “We’ve just got to go out there and execute. If we do that, it’ll be successful for us.”

Chad Leistikow's Iowa-Illinois State game prediction

Illinois State (0-0) at No. 25 Iowa (0-0)

Time, TV, line: 11 a.m., Big Ten Network, Iowa by 22½ points

Where Illinois State has the edge: The Redbirds are the preseason No. 20 team in FCS and bring an experienced roster to Iowa City. Their most dangerous potential is in the pass rush, where 27 of their 36 sacks from a year ago return. Illinois State coach Brock Spack, a former defensive mastermind at Purdue, knows that against Iowa his best chance to disrupt the quarterback (McNamara). It'll be imperative for Iowa's veteran offensive line to hold up (something it has struggled to do for the last three years) to keep Lester's offense on schedule and out of trouble. Remember, Iowa was an uncharacteristic minus-7 in turnovers last year.

Where Iowa has the edge: An extremely veteran Hawkeyes defense has a chance to pitch a season-opening shutout, considering Illinois State's last Big Ten game (at 2022 Wisconsin) was a 38-0 loss. The Redbirds plan to alternate quarterbacks in Tommy Rittenhouse and Jake Rubley, something that shouldn't shake a disciplined defense like Iowa's. The Hawkeyes also should have the element of surprise, in that Lester's offense hasn't really been scouted. That variable has the potential to pop off some big plays.

Prediction: Iowa 31, Illinois State 7 … While it's too much to expect a smooth operation for the offense in Week 1, the offensive line will control the line of scrimmage with 200-plus rushing yards. Freshman Kamari Moulton gets into the end zone and so does Lachey, as the Hawkeyes are able to get their second-teamers valuable game reps throughout the fourth quarter. And for the 10th straight Iowa game, the under (set at 40½) hits.

Hawkeyes columnist Chad Leistikow has served for 29years with The Des Moines Register and USA TODAY Sports Network. Chad is the 2023 INA Iowa Sports Columnist of the Year and NSMA Co-Sportswriter of the Year in Iowa. Join Chad's text-message group (free for subscribers)atHawkCentral.com/HawkeyesTexts.Follow @ChadLeistikow on X (formerly Twitter).

Leistikow's Iowa vs Illinois State prediction: Lachey's return can pace Hawkeyes win (2024)
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